Community Prediction Markets
Create any market. Trade outcomes. Validate results.
Status: LIVE BETA
Community Markets is live with virtual tokens for testing! Real $SOLPREDS integration coming after presale.
What Makes Us Different
SOLPREDS Community Markets is the first fully decentralized prediction market on Solana with permissionless market creation and game-theory-based resolution.
Comparison
| Feature | Polymarket | Kalshi | SOLPREDS Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Creation | ❌ Curated | ❌ Regulated | ✅ Permissionless |
| Resolution | Centralized UMA | Centralized CFTC | ✅ Decentralized Staking |
| Creator Earnings | None | None | ✅ 1% trading fees + 1% liquidity jackpot |
| Trading Model | Order Book | Order Book | ✅ Bonding Curve AMM |
| Barriers | High liquidity needed | US citizens only | ✅ Open to all |
| Market Types | Binary + Multi-Outcome | Binary only | ✅ Binary + Multi-Choice |
How It Works
1. Create Any Market (0.1 Virtual SOL)
Anyone can create prediction markets:
Binary Markets (YES/NO): - "Will BTC hit $100K by March?" - "Will SOL flip ETH in TVL?" - "Will this memecoin bond in the next hour?"
Multi-Choice Markets: - "Who wins the 2026 World Cup?" → Brazil, Argentina, France, Germany... - "What will SOL price be Dec 31?" → <$100, $100-$200, $200-$500, >$500 - "Which AI company IPOs first?" → OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Mistral
Creator Benefits: - Earn 1% of all trading fees - Earn 1% of the final liquidity jackpot when market resolves - No liquidity needed — bonding curve handles it - Claimable earnings dashboard - Passive income from market activity
Cost: 0.1 SOL (virtual SOL during beta)
2. Dynamic Bonding Curve AMM
Markets use a dynamic virtual base AMM for instant execution:
Price Formula:
Where:
- b = dynamic virtual base (adjusts with volume)
- N = number of outcomes (2 for binary, more for multi-choice)
- shares_i = shares held for outcome i
- total_shares = sum of all outcome shares
Key Features: - No order books needed - Instant trades at fair prices - Price impact decreases as volume grows - All outcome prices always sum to 100% - Natural price discovery
How it works:
Binary Market: "Will SOL hit $200 by March?"
Initial: YES: 50.0% | NO: 50.0%
Alice buys $100 YES
→ YES: 59.2% | NO: 40.8%
Bob buys $50 NO
→ YES: 53.1% | NO: 46.9%
Prices reflect real-time probability!
Multi-Choice Example:
Market: "Who wins MVP 2026?"
Initial: Player A: 25% | Player B: 25% | Player C: 25% | Player D: 25%
After trading: Player A: 42% | Player B: 28% | Player C: 18% | Player D: 12%
3. Decentralized Resolution
Markets resolve through a 3-phase staking system with real economic stakes:
Phase 1: Proposal
- Market ends (auto at deadline)
- Validators stake 10,000 $SOLPREDS to propose outcome
- 6-hour dispute window begins
- If undisputed → Validator earns 1% of market pot
Stake Amount
During beta, the stake is fixed at 10,000 virtual $SOLPREDS. On mainnet, the required stake targets ~$200 USD equivalent, calculated dynamically using the live $SOLPREDS price via Jupiter.
Phase 2: Challenge Window (6 hours)
Path A - No Dispute (90% of cases): - No one challenges within 6 hours - Market auto-finalizes with proposed outcome - Winners can claim payouts - Validator gets: stake back + 1% pot reward
Path B - Disputed: - Someone disagrees and stakes 10,000 $SOLPREDS - Proposes different outcome - Triggers community vote
Phase 3: Community Vote (24 hours - If Disputed)
- All $SOLPREDS holders vote
- Voting power is balance-weighted — larger holdings carry more influence
- Minimum 3 unique voters required (quorum)
- Majority wins
Slashing Distribution (Loser's Stake): - 25% → Winning staker bonus - 50% → Split among winning voters (by voting power) - 25% → Burned permanently
This ensures: - ✅ Validators only propose correct outcomes (lose stake if wrong) - ✅ Challengers only dispute when confident (lose stake if wrong) - ✅ Community votes accurately (earn from being right) - ✅ No centralized oracle needed
Virtual Economy (Beta)
During beta testing, Community Markets operates with virtual assets:
Every new user receives: - 1,000 Virtual SOL for trading - 1,000,000 Virtual $SOLPREDS for validation/voting
Benefits: - Zero risk testing - Build reputation and strategies - Creator earnings accumulate (claimable) - Learn the system before mainnet
Mainnet Transition: - Real $SOLPREDS token integration - Real SOL trading - Creator earnings become real - Referral rewards become real
Fee Structure
Trading Fees (3% per trade)
| Recipient | Share |
|---|---|
| Market Creator | 1% |
| Platform | 2% |
Claiming Winnings (5% of payout)
| Recipient | Share |
|---|---|
| Market Creator | 1% |
| Platform | 3% |
| Validator Reward | 1% |
How Fees Apply
The 3% trade fee is deducted when you buy or sell shares. The 5% claim fee is deducted from your payout when you claim winnings. They apply at different stages and to different amounts.
Creator Earnings
Popular markets generate passive income! A market with $10,000 in trading volume earns the creator $100 (1% of fees) plus 1% of the final liquidity jackpot at resolution. All earnings are claimable anytime from the creator dashboard.
5-Level Referral System
Unified across Prediction Rounds and Community Markets:
| Level | Commission |
|---|---|
| Level 1 (Direct) | 25% |
| Level 2 | 3.5% |
| Level 3 | 2.5% |
| Level 4 | 2% |
| Level 5 | 1% |
How it works: - One referral code for both platforms - Earn from all your referrals' trading fees - Commissions split from platform share (no extra fees to users) - During beta: Auto-credits to virtual balance - On mainnet: Claimable on-chain earnings
Example:
You refer Alice (Level 1)
Alice refers Bob (Level 2)
Bob refers Carol (Level 3)
Bob trades $1,000 → generates $30 in fees
Your earnings:
- From Alice's trades: 25% of fees
- From Bob's trades: 3.5% of fees
- From Carol's trades: 2.5% of fees
Why This Innovation Matters
No More Centralized Oracles
Traditional platforms: - Polymarket → UMA resolvers (centralized committee) - Kalshi → CFTC regulated (US only, curated markets) - Augur → Failed (oracle problem unsolved)
SOLPREDS solves this: - ✅ Permissionless validation - ✅ Economic penalties for dishonest proposals (stake loss) - ✅ Community voting as backup - ✅ No single point of failure
Permissionless Market Creation
Traditional platforms: - Weeks-long review process - High curation barriers - Limited market types
SOLPREDS: - ✅ Create any market in 30 seconds - ✅ 0.1 SOL cost - ✅ Instant approval - ✅ Binary + Multi-Choice support - ✅ Earn from your ideas
Multi-Choice Markets
Unique to SOLPREDS: - Multiple custom outcomes per market - More nuanced predictions - Higher engagement - More trading opportunities
Examples: - "Which team wins?" → Multiple teams - "Price range prediction?" → Multiple ranges - "Who's next president?" → Multiple candidates
Example Markets
Browse live markets at solpreds.fun
Active Markets
Binary: - "Will $SOLPREDS presale hit $1M?" - "Will BTC hit $100K by March?" - "Will SOL flip ETH in DeFi TVL?"
Multi-Choice: - "Who wins the 2026 World Cup?" (multiple countries) - "SOL price Dec 31?" (multiple price ranges) - "Which AI company IPOs first?" (multiple companies)
Roadmap
| Milestone | Status |
|---|---|
| ✅ Dynamic Bonding Curve AMM | Complete |
| ✅ Multi-Choice Markets | Complete |
| ✅ Resolution System | Complete |
| ✅ Creator Earnings Dashboard | Complete |
| ✅ 5-Level Referrals | Complete |
| ✅ Virtual Economy Beta | Live Now |
| 🟡 $SOLPREDS Presale | In Progress |
| ⏳ Token Integration | After Presale |
| ⏳ Mainnet Launch | Q2 2026 |
| ⏳ On-Chain Program | Q3 2026 |
Get Started
Test Community Markets with virtual tokens:
Join the $SOLPREDS presale:
Stay Connected: - 🐦 Twitter/X - 💬 Telegram - 💬 Discord